Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
